Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy47 ratings
Bullish2859.6%
Neutral1838.3%
Bearish12.1%
Union Pacific Corporation · UNP · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026
UNP Q2 2026: Record EPS $3.41, Guidance Raised as Norfolk Southern Merger Clears Key Hurdles
Union Pacific delivered record Q2 2026 results, with adjusted EPS of $3.41 beating consensus by 6.6% and revenue of $6.86B exceeding estimates by 2.2%. The operating ratio improved to 59.2%, and management raised full-year EPS guidance to high-single-digit growth. The Norfolk Southern merger advanced meaningfully, with the STB accepting the application as complete on May 28, and a new settlement with Canadian National expanded EJ&E and Mexico gateway access. Volume growth was led by grain exports, domestic intermodal, and petrochemicals, while productivity gains (record car velocity of 231 miles per day) and pricing above inflation offset persistent fuel cost headwinds. The stock responded with a 5.3% abnormal move on 2.65x baseline volume.
Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials
$177.81B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationUnion Pacific Corporation, a prominent American railway enterprise, conducts its primary operations through its subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company. The company provides extensive freight transportation services for a wide array of commodities. Its diverse cargo includes agricultural products like grain, fertilizers, and refrigerated foods; energy resources such as coal, renewables, petroleum, and liquid petroleum gases; and industrial materials encompassing construction products, chemicals, plastics, forest products, metals, ores, soda ash, and sand.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$3.41
Consensus $3
EPS surprise
+6.6%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$6.86B
Consensus $6.72B
Revenue surprise
+2.2%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$292.13Previous close
$177Low
$272.3Average
$363High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Aug 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Benchmark | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Mar 31, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Loop Capital | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Sep 16, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 12, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 25, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 7, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 2, 2025 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 28, 2025 |
| Redburn Atlantic | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 16, 2025 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 14, 2025 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 27, 2023 |
| Atlantic Equities | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 27, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 25, 2023 |
| CFRA | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 24, 2020 |
| TD Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 18, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 5, 2019 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 8, 2019 |
| Scotiabank | Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | Jan 8, 2019 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 1, 2018 |
| Daiwa Capital | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 11, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 18, 2017 |
| Buckingham | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 18, 2017 |
| Aegis Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 24, 2016 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Perform | Maintain | Jun 16, 2016 |
| CLSA | Sell | Sell | Maintain | May 19, 2016 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 22, 2016 |
| BB&T Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 1, 2015 |
| Avondale Partners | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 24, 2015 |
| Buckingham Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 7, 2015 |
| Nomura | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 10, 2014 |
| FBR Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 27, 2014 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jun 16, 2014 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 11, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $292.13. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert W. Baird | Daniel Moore | $344 | $307.32 | +17.8% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $339 | $304.06 | +16.0% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| UBS | Thomas Wadewitz | $310 | $303.7 | +6.1% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $320 | $304.33 | +9.5% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $335 | $304.33 | +14.7% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $350 | $304.33 | +19.8% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $317 | $304.33 | +8.5% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Harrison Bauer | $333 | $288.99 | +14.0% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Patrick Tyler Brown | $363 | $289 | +24.3% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $294 | $259.96 | +0.6% | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Harrison Bauer | $305 | $272.35 | +4.4% | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $310 | $269.42 | +6.1% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| UBS | Thomas Wadewitz | $274 | $269.6 | -6.2% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $285 | $269.98 | -2.4% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $277 | $269.95 | -5.2% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $289 | $271.26 | -1.1% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Christian Wetherbee | $300 | $271.26 | +2.7% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $315 | $271.26 | +7.8% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $273 | $239.19 | -6.5% | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Dan Moore | $311 | $260.2 | +6.5% | Mar 6, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $295 | $265 | +1.0% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $267 | $232.55 | -8.6% | Jan 27, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $255 | $233.62 | -12.7% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $280 | $236.76 | -4.2% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $285 | $239.93 | -2.4% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Richa Harnain | $245 | $235.46 | -16.1% | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $263 | $220.04 | -10.0% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $253 | $234.52 | -13.4% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $272 | $232 | -6.9% | Sep 25, 2025 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Rick Paterson | $227 | $216.78 | -22.3% | Sep 16, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Patrick Tyler Brown | $270 | $231.14 | -7.6% | Jul 15, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $260 | $227.91 | -11.0% | Jun 24, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $295 | $249.31 | +1.0% | Mar 7, 2025 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Rick Paterson | $200 | $243.02 | -31.5% | Feb 3, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Patrick Tyler Brown | $265 | $225.21 | -9.3% | Jan 10, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Christian Wetherbee | $265 | $230.54 | -9.3% | Jan 7, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Patrick Tyler Brown | $275 | $242.31 | -5.9% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $247 | $248.96 | -15.4% | Sep 25, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Ken Hoexter | $270 | $244 | -7.6% | Sep 24, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Ken Hoexter | $273 | $243.68 | -6.5% | Sep 20, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $275 | $243.53 | -5.9% | Sep 20, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $280 | $243.85 | -4.2% | Sep 11, 2024 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $280 | $235.35 | -4.2% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Benjamin Nolan | $265 | $242.92 | -9.3% | Jul 17, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Rick Paterson | $238 | $222.1 | -18.5% | Jun 17, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Benjamin Nolan | $267 | $237.69 | -8.6% | May 2, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Benjamin Nolan | $248 | $236.16 | -15.1% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Moore | $250 | $242.01 | -14.4% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $255 | $244.63 | -12.7% | Mar 28, 2024 |
| Bernstein | David Vernon | $280 | $243.11 | -4.2% | Jan 22, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | $210 | $207.28 | -28.1% | Feb 27, 2023 |
| Bank of America Securities | Ken Hoexter | $241 | $212.16 | -17.5% | Feb 27, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $179 | $214.44 | -38.7% | Jan 11, 2023 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $212.28 | -21.3% | Jan 11, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $208.16 | -31.5% | Jan 4, 2023 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $232 | $205.41 | -20.6% | Dec 20, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Amit Mehrotra | $238 | $208.52 | -18.5% | Nov 28, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Ariel Rosa | $232 | $190.53 | -20.6% | Oct 21, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ravi Shanker | $177 | $190.53 | -39.4% | Oct 21, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Walter Spracklin | $200 | $186.45 | -31.5% | Oct 20, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $250 | $186.45 | -14.4% | Oct 20, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $187 | $199.03 | -36.0% | Oct 3, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors Majors | $208 | $199.23 | -28.8% | Sep 29, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $199.1 | -28.1% | Sep 29, 2022 |
| Daiwa | Jairam Nathan | $242 | $239.07 | -17.2% | Aug 26, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $240 | $227.08 | -17.8% | Aug 2, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Benjamin Nolan | $225 | $217.38 | -23.0% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Ariel Rosa | $252 | $212.73 | -13.7% | Jul 22, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $236 | $213.67 | -19.2% | Jul 22, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $207 | $213.63 | -29.1% | Jul 22, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $232 | $211.78 | -20.6% | Jul 22, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $218 | $205.52 | -25.4% | Jul 15, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $236 | $205.87 | -19.2% | Jul 12, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $210.29 | -14.4% | Jul 8, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $210.29 | -28.1% | Jul 8, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $235 | $207.81 | -19.6% | Jul 6, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $285 | $244.4 | -2.4% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $267 | $244.4 | -8.6% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Jordan Alliger | $276 | $244.4 | -5.5% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Robert W. Baird | Garrett Holland | $280 | $244.4 | -4.2% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $310 | $241.98 | +6.1% | Apr 9, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $276 | $245.13 | -5.5% | Jan 21, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Scott Group | $287 | $245.13 | -1.8% | Jan 21, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Benjamin Nolan | $252 | $240.89 | -13.7% | Jan 20, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $270 | $240.89 | -7.6% | Jan 20, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Jordan Alliger | $261 | $240.89 | -10.7% | Jan 20, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Ariel Rosa | $264 | $245.8 | -9.6% | Jan 12, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Christian Wetherbee | $287 | $251.56 | -1.8% | Jan 5, 2022 |
| Stephens | Justin Long | $278 | $250.8 | -4.8% | Jan 4, 2022 |
| UBS | Thomas Wadewitz | $279 | $244.75 | -4.5% | Dec 15, 2021 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ravi Shanker | $215 | $239.97 | -26.4% | Oct 28, 2021 |
| TD Securities | Cherilyn Radbourne | $245 | $235.31 | -16.1% | Oct 22, 2021 |
| Benchmark Co. | Mark Levin | $255 | $235.31 | -12.7% | Oct 22, 2021 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Rick Paterson | $252 | $201.46 | -13.7% | Sep 14, 2021 |
| Argus Research | John Eade | $250 | $217.02 | -14.4% | Jul 26, 2021 |
Track every rating change on UNP the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+4.0%
Event window
SPY move
-1.2%
Same window
Abnormal move
+5.3%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.6×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-1.0%
Up to 20 sessions
UNPSPY benchmark
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Compared to Q1 2026, Union Pacific improved its operating ratio from 59.9% to 59.2%, grew net income from $1.7B to $2.0B, and raised full-year EPS guidance from mid-single-digit to high-single-digit growth. The Norfolk Southern merger transitioned from a delayed filing to STB acceptance of the completed application, and a new Canadian National settlement agreement provided EJ&E and Mexico access not present in the prior quarter. Freight car velocity reached a record 231 miles per day, up 5% year-over-year.
Guidance delta
Raised. Full-year EPS growth guidance increased from mid-single-digit (Q1 2026) to high-single-digit growth (Q2 2026). Capex outlook remains increasing.
Key takeaways
- Record Q2 EPS of $3.41 beat consensus of $3.20 by 6.6%; revenue of $6.86B topped estimates by 2.2%.
- Operating ratio improved to 59.2% from 59.9% in Q1, reflecting productivity gains and pricing above inflation.
- Full-year EPS guidance raised to high-single-digit growth from mid-single-digit.
- Norfolk Southern merger advanced: STB accepted the application as complete on May 28, with supplemental filings and hearings ahead.
- Canadian National settlement agreement expands EJ&E and Mexico gateway access, a new strategic development.
- Freight car velocity reached a record 231 miles per day, up 5% year-over-year.
Management priorities
- Advancing the Norfolk Southern merger through the STB regulatory process, including supplemental filings and hearings.
- Opening a new grain export facility in Grays Harbor, Washington to capture export demand.
- Executing capital projects including the $125M Houston complex, Pacific Northwest siding extensions, and the Sunset double-track project.
- Expanding open gateway interchanges and leveraging the Canadian National agreement for Mexico traffic.
- Continuing safety and productivity investments, including AI-driven dispatch and terminal platforms.
Related earnings events
IndustrialsPOOL · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026Pool Corp Q2: Maintenance Demand Holds, Freight Costs Weigh on MarginsALLE · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026Allegion Beats on Q2 Revenue and EPS, Raises Full-Year Outlook as Americas Demand AcceleratesROL · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026Rollins Q2 2026: Revenue Misses as Digital Lead Slowdown Hits Orkin
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-23T18:04:53.627080+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-28T01:23:15.070317+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-28T15:30:56.316494+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-28T15:30:56.313421+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.