Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited · HMY · FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026

Harmony Gold posts record FY2026 while Eva Copper risks remain

Harmony Gold's record FY2026 performance and maintained Eva Copper plan support a constructive operating thesis, but delivery depends on project permitting, integration, liabilities and commodity prices.

Reported Before market openNYSEBasic Materials $12.45B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $1.29 Consensus $1.29
EPS surprise 0.0% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $3.66B Consensus $3.20B
Revenue surprise +14.2% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -6.2% Event window
SPY move +0.7% Same window
Abnormal move -6.9% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.5× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -5.3% Up to 20 sessions
HMYSPY benchmark

Ask FN2 about HMY FY2026 Q4

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The current analysis describes record FY2026 results, including 1.43 million ounces of gold production, 34% revenue growth, 54% adjusted free-cash-flow growth and a record final dividend. The CSA acquisition contributed to copper results, while management maintained CapEx guidance and the 2028 Eva Copper production target.

Guidance delta

Management maintained CapEx guidance and its target for first copper production at Eva Copper in 2028.

Key takeaways

  • Gold production met guidance, while copper from the CSA acquisition was within expectations.
  • EPS grew 87% and adjusted free cash flow reached a record level, according to the transcript analysis.
  • Management highlighted mine-life extensions and exploration, alongside permitting and contingent-liability risks.

Management priorities

  • Execute the 2026–2030 value-unlocking plan.
  • Integrate and ramp up CSA while pursuing mine-life extensions and reserve conversion.
  • Advance Eva Copper toward first production in 2028 and continue exploration.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
HMY EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 6 reported fiscal quarters and 0 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 actual $0.26, None Q3 '24 actual $0.11, None Q4 '24 actual $0.11, None Q4 '25 estimate $0.57 Q4 '25 actual $0.58, beat Q2 '26 estimate $0.95 Q2 '26 actual $0.87, miss Q4 '26 estimate $1.29 Q4 '26 actual $1.29, match

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold10 ratings
Bullish110.0%
Neutral770.0%
Bearish220.0%

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
HSBC Buy HoldUpgradeOct 9, 2025
JP Morgan Neutral NeutralMaintainNov 12, 2024
UBS Neutral BuyDowngradeSep 7, 2022
Macquarie Underperform NeutralDowngradeAug 28, 2018
Bank of America Neutral BuyDowngradeOct 20, 2017
B of A Securities Neutral BuyDowngradeOct 20, 2017
Morgan Stanley Equal Weight UnderweightUpgradeNov 11, 2016
Citigroup Sell NeutralDowngradeNov 11, 2016
Goldman Sachs Neutral SellUpgradeOct 22, 2013
CIBC Sector Perform Sector OutperformDowngradeJan 24, 2013
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited engages in the exploration, extraction, and processing of mineral properties in South Africa, Papua New Guinea, and Australia. The company explores for gold, uranium, silver, and copper deposits. It has nine underground operations in the Witwatersrand Basin; the Kraaipan Greenstone Belt; and various surface source operations in South Africa. In addition, the company owns interests in the Hidden Valley, an open-pit gold and silver mine; and the Wafi-Golpu project located in Morobe Province in Papua New Guinea. Further, it holds interest in Eva Copper Project located in Queensland, Australia. Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited was incorporated in 1950 and is based in Randfontein, South Africa.

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-08-28T06:20:12.958890+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-21T01:23:13.071796+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-21T03:50:49.259185+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.